maddipati1
03-12 07:20 AM
ur and some others optimism amazes me.. :D
seems like u r already planning for getting ready for next visa bull(shit)etin ... and after parties... :D
now looks like dates would move only after july..
seems like u r already planning for getting ready for next visa bull(shit)etin ... and after parties... :D
now looks like dates would move only after july..
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kosu
08-15 03:57 PM
September is out.. I cannot beleive what i am seeing..
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3761.html
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3761.html
superdude
09-18 11:04 PM
I totaly agree with you
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srkamath
07-18 03:17 PM
I complied the list from visa stastistics website
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/statistics/statistics_1476.html
example 2007 numbers from
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVp2.pdf
2006 numbers from
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY06AnnualReportTableV-Part2.pdf
This is simply the best data i have ever seen an IV member dig out in the last 2 years.. Great Job sachug22
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/statistics/statistics_1476.html
example 2007 numbers from
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07AnnualReportTableVp2.pdf
2006 numbers from
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY06AnnualReportTableV-Part2.pdf
This is simply the best data i have ever seen an IV member dig out in the last 2 years.. Great Job sachug22
more...
alisa
01-20 03:44 PM
This is all for EB-3.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
GCStatus
09-18 12:01 AM
You cornered me? On what basis? You throw insult and that is your definition for cornered? Is there any logical argument that prove that I am wrong and you are right? Grow up and don't poison this thread with your pointless insults
Omg, easy. This is embarrassing. You completely took it out of context. Its all good ok, its all good.
Omg, easy. This is embarrassing. You completely took it out of context. Its all good ok, its all good.
more...
alex99
07-11 07:35 PM
EB3 PERM
Labor Filed: August 27th 2006
I-140 filed at NSC on 12th November
Still waiting for approval
Sent 485 App to NSC on July 2nd....
Regards,
Alex
Labor Filed: August 27th 2006
I-140 filed at NSC on 12th November
Still waiting for approval
Sent 485 App to NSC on July 2nd....
Regards,
Alex
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reddymjm
09-10 06:12 AM
IF DOS does not make EB2 I C and EB3 ROW current before Jul 2011.
ROW world has a quota of 149,200 and pending applications of 100 + 44,800 = 44,900.
Lets say EB1, EB3 ROW uses 30K which I doubt will be far less than that, so there will be 70K visas just from ROW to spill to EB3 ROW. If DOS/USICS decides not to waste the Visas definetly EB3 Mexico and India should get a good share of that 70k. This 70k should even be more as there might be some unsed EB1.
THIS IS ALL VOID IF EB2 I C and EB3 ROW becoming Current before Jul 2011 and also if they start quarterly spill over.
Good luck guys.
ROW world has a quota of 149,200 and pending applications of 100 + 44,800 = 44,900.
Lets say EB1, EB3 ROW uses 30K which I doubt will be far less than that, so there will be 70K visas just from ROW to spill to EB3 ROW. If DOS/USICS decides not to waste the Visas definetly EB3 Mexico and India should get a good share of that 70k. This 70k should even be more as there might be some unsed EB1.
THIS IS ALL VOID IF EB2 I C and EB3 ROW becoming Current before Jul 2011 and also if they start quarterly spill over.
Good luck guys.
more...
vin13
02-11 06:48 PM
There is a huge backlog in FB category. How come there are 13,000 unused visas in FB. If any immigration business shop is so confident about their assertion, why do they not file a lawsuit on CIS. Why are they posting these messages on different forums? Do they just want to gain visibility? It seems that its better business practice is to write random statements like 'CIS failed again' without having the willingness to do something about CIS failure. Aren't there clients with pending 485 of this immigration shop. As their lawyer and with fiduciary duty towards his clients, if he is so confident of CIS failure, why is he not filing a lawsuit on CIS to guard the interest of his clients.
Who are you questioning???
I just conveyed the message .Nobody said it is true or false. This is the message received period. Now we need to evaluate and see if it makes sense.
We are talking about an inefficient USCIS. It is OK to question and make sure things are happening as it should. The lawyer is not posting information everywhere. Why do you have to jump into conclusions? You and Me have a interest in us getting the green card not the lawyer. Don't expect the lawyer to file a lawsuit for you...and lets get the facts together and leave the lawyer alone.
Who are you questioning???
I just conveyed the message .Nobody said it is true or false. This is the message received period. Now we need to evaluate and see if it makes sense.
We are talking about an inefficient USCIS. It is OK to question and make sure things are happening as it should. The lawyer is not posting information everywhere. Why do you have to jump into conclusions? You and Me have a interest in us getting the green card not the lawyer. Don't expect the lawyer to file a lawsuit for you...and lets get the facts together and leave the lawyer alone.
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alterego
09-10 06:15 PM
Actually even the Brits. have a rule in their immigration process stating that if you have spent a total of 10 yrs in that country, that alone is a basis for a PR card there. Citizenship is another 1 yr after that(there is currently some debate about making it 2 mainly over spousal PR cards). This rule is based on the premise that if you have been part of the society for that length of time then you have contributed sufficiently to warrant peership. So by this score, many of those who posted that they have been here since earlier than 1999 would have been eligible even absent the employers assistance.
Given that we have been tax paying, law abiding and patiently waiting through a bureaucratic system that has to date not approved 500K visas that they could have, we have a legitimate grouse to any fair minded person. We have contributed tremendously through our purchasing power and in many other ways to this economy.
As it stands however the system is mainly screwing EB India. Ideally they should start up a Country caps for H1b visas also. Only then will the foolishness of per country quotas for EMPLOYMENT BASED immigration be fully apparent. I see potentially another example of this "managed overflow" system at work here.
It seems likely on the Oct. VB that EB3 ROW would have been afforded a much more generous PD than EB2I. Based on the USCIS's assertion that henceforth spillover will be horizontal before vertical, the presumption can then be that EB3ROW would basically be limited to 28% of 140K, on that basis and recent retrogression for EB3ROW, those numbers should be used up rapidly. I'll bet that this will not happen. A whole lot of "managing" is going on.
Given that we have been tax paying, law abiding and patiently waiting through a bureaucratic system that has to date not approved 500K visas that they could have, we have a legitimate grouse to any fair minded person. We have contributed tremendously through our purchasing power and in many other ways to this economy.
As it stands however the system is mainly screwing EB India. Ideally they should start up a Country caps for H1b visas also. Only then will the foolishness of per country quotas for EMPLOYMENT BASED immigration be fully apparent. I see potentially another example of this "managed overflow" system at work here.
It seems likely on the Oct. VB that EB3 ROW would have been afforded a much more generous PD than EB2I. Based on the USCIS's assertion that henceforth spillover will be horizontal before vertical, the presumption can then be that EB3ROW would basically be limited to 28% of 140K, on that basis and recent retrogression for EB3ROW, those numbers should be used up rapidly. I'll bet that this will not happen. A whole lot of "managing" is going on.
more...
chmur
09-10 06:53 PM
It is a given that Demand is not stagnant . If it were , backlog would have been reduced by 140K this year alone.
Each year the new quota is 140K , as long as the new demand each year ~100K - the remaining 40K goes towards backlog elimination . We will know in the next inventory report what is "net" reduction for 2010. One can do rough math of latest inventory report and the current priority dates to arrive at ~approximate figure of 35-40K.
I think EB3 should get cleared in next 5 years - I think flood of new EB2 applications are overblown.
I think "peak demand" was between 2003 and 2007 . Good news is USCIS is no more wasting numbers .
Given that change to laws is almost impossible. We should sit tight and wait for 3-5 years.
Each year the new quota is 140K , as long as the new demand each year ~100K - the remaining 40K goes towards backlog elimination . We will know in the next inventory report what is "net" reduction for 2010. One can do rough math of latest inventory report and the current priority dates to arrive at ~approximate figure of 35-40K.
I think EB3 should get cleared in next 5 years - I think flood of new EB2 applications are overblown.
I think "peak demand" was between 2003 and 2007 . Good news is USCIS is no more wasting numbers .
Given that change to laws is almost impossible. We should sit tight and wait for 3-5 years.
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njboy
04-04 03:41 PM
if this bill is signed into law...most desi consultant companies with one h4 aunty doing the accounting work + recruiting + administrative work will have to shut down
more...
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whitecollarslave
01-18 01:36 PM
Talking about ID cards, wouldn't a driver's license be a proof of legal stay? With the new rules they check for immigration status before issuing a drivers license. People who are tourists or visitors will not have a US state issued drivers license.
In my case, my driver's license is valid till my H1 validity.
In my case, my driver's license is valid till my H1 validity.
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justAnotherFile
12-30 07:18 PM
...
Also posted on yahoo groups page.
Also posted on yahoo groups page.
more...
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grinch
03-15 05:19 PM
ok made thread, lets do this...
And are the polls done for this battle?
And are the polls done for this battle?
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larun
06-12 08:36 AM
Done
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anilnag
03-09 10:47 PM
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=324915#post324915
Please contribute here so that we can end the guessing game and get realistic data on pending applications by each category and country. This will help us determine how fast VB may move in future.
Thanks
Please contribute here so that we can end the guessing game and get realistic data on pending applications by each category and country. This will help us determine how fast VB may move in future.
Thanks
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jprangi
07-03 02:10 PM
Hello All,
This whole story is a mess. USCIS is very much wrong on what they did. We all ended up in spending hundreds of thousands of dollars and on average one week of time to file the application. Few people took off from their work to complete the application on time. Few people paid as much as $700 for medical.
I have seen tons of blogs on internet and every blogs is talking about the same things.
Even though there are hundreds thousands of people were suffered. I don't see a single line on any major new web website or TV news channels. I doubt if any senator even knows how USCIS has been torturing (emotionally as well as financially) good, educated, responsible, and legal residents.
Dont you think its time to wake up and scream so loudly that these deafs can
hear and feel the pain.
Dont you think its time to help yourself. Forget about your employers, its not in their benefit to fight for you.
Dont you thinks its time for US citizens to know what their great US govt ( lovely responsible senators) are doing for legal resident. They are working hard to make illegals (out of them so many are criminals) legal. Giving hard time to legals.
Dont you think its time to tell every one that what can happen to America if we go mad and do system maintenance by running the command "rm -rf /*"
MAY BE ITS THE TIME TO COME ON ROADS IN LA, Chicago, NY, and Washington DC.
Its time to tell them that we can do it and we can do it very hard.
Its time to stop beating around bush and do something useful.
Just some thought..
-JP
This whole story is a mess. USCIS is very much wrong on what they did. We all ended up in spending hundreds of thousands of dollars and on average one week of time to file the application. Few people took off from their work to complete the application on time. Few people paid as much as $700 for medical.
I have seen tons of blogs on internet and every blogs is talking about the same things.
Even though there are hundreds thousands of people were suffered. I don't see a single line on any major new web website or TV news channels. I doubt if any senator even knows how USCIS has been torturing (emotionally as well as financially) good, educated, responsible, and legal residents.
Dont you think its time to wake up and scream so loudly that these deafs can
hear and feel the pain.
Dont you think its time to help yourself. Forget about your employers, its not in their benefit to fight for you.
Dont you thinks its time for US citizens to know what their great US govt ( lovely responsible senators) are doing for legal resident. They are working hard to make illegals (out of them so many are criminals) legal. Giving hard time to legals.
Dont you think its time to tell every one that what can happen to America if we go mad and do system maintenance by running the command "rm -rf /*"
MAY BE ITS THE TIME TO COME ON ROADS IN LA, Chicago, NY, and Washington DC.
Its time to tell them that we can do it and we can do it very hard.
Its time to stop beating around bush and do something useful.
Just some thought..
-JP
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greyhair
02-12 02:16 PM
hold on guys!!! i was the one who started this thread because i was not sure if ron was right or not but i guess seeing desi3933 comments that he is right and ron may not have the proof to justify this time.
it is good if we can get some proof of uscis wasting/not using visa but untill then please dont blame each other..
I feel the arguments desi3933 is giving.... makes most of the sense as compared to the last reply by ron which was like a general response instead of showing root cause of 13k visa lost.
peace V
Please let me clarify. This is not a question of ambiguity in the meaning of the message. Its crystal clear. One immigration body shop said that 13K visas are wasted by USCIS. It has been proven with facts that the statement made by immigration body shop is factually incorrect. Its not the first time. But you continue to ask others to look for proof of USCIS wasting visa numbers even after looking at the data. I am totally perplexed by the obsession with immigration body shop when repeatedly similar inflaming messages have been discredited in the public arena. :confused: When is enough, enough.
it is good if we can get some proof of uscis wasting/not using visa but untill then please dont blame each other..
I feel the arguments desi3933 is giving.... makes most of the sense as compared to the last reply by ron which was like a general response instead of showing root cause of 13k visa lost.
peace V
Please let me clarify. This is not a question of ambiguity in the meaning of the message. Its crystal clear. One immigration body shop said that 13K visas are wasted by USCIS. It has been proven with facts that the statement made by immigration body shop is factually incorrect. Its not the first time. But you continue to ask others to look for proof of USCIS wasting visa numbers even after looking at the data. I am totally perplexed by the obsession with immigration body shop when repeatedly similar inflaming messages have been discredited in the public arena. :confused: When is enough, enough.
smuggymba
09-10 08:36 AM
I understand what you said, but just to consider the off numbers published by dos
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
EB2 total pending 34325
EB3 total pending 136325
2010-2011 quota EB1+EB2 ( 85343 )
less eb2 " " 34325
--------------------------------------------
" " 51018 trickeling down for EB3 Worldwide?
2010-2011 quota EB3 ( 42671 )
less eb3 - 136325
--------------------------------------------
42636 ( eb3 pending left over from above )
2011-2012 quota eb1+eb2+eb3 128013
So, with above math Eb2 will be current by next year, and eb3 will be by end of 2012?
above math is based on
inaccurate numbers given by DOS?
assuming no new applicants applying.
Hope I am correct! :)
Hi Sanju-dba,
In the predictions thread, I saw the members saying there are 100-120K people waiting in EB2 from now until 2010. You're saying it's 34K...can u post this in the predictions thread so that other members can analyze the numbers. Thanks.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
EB2 total pending 34325
EB3 total pending 136325
2010-2011 quota EB1+EB2 ( 85343 )
less eb2 " " 34325
--------------------------------------------
" " 51018 trickeling down for EB3 Worldwide?
2010-2011 quota EB3 ( 42671 )
less eb3 - 136325
--------------------------------------------
42636 ( eb3 pending left over from above )
2011-2012 quota eb1+eb2+eb3 128013
So, with above math Eb2 will be current by next year, and eb3 will be by end of 2012?
above math is based on
inaccurate numbers given by DOS?
assuming no new applicants applying.
Hope I am correct! :)
Hi Sanju-dba,
In the predictions thread, I saw the members saying there are 100-120K people waiting in EB2 from now until 2010. You're saying it's 34K...can u post this in the predictions thread so that other members can analyze the numbers. Thanks.
tonyHK12
04-01 09:19 AM
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