Legal
07-25 09:06 PM
IMO, "MASSIVE" is a relative term. Even if there are 400,000 applicants and 45% of them are India and 60% of those are E2, the total is just 108,000. Not that bad if we look at the calculations and E2 numbers India gets this year and next year. I think it is sensible to say the actual number would be lower than 108K.
Having said that, before horizontal spill over, all these numbers (spill overs) were going to E3 ROW. Why is E3 ROW still severely retrogressed? Apart from calculations, I am attempting to do all reality checks. Is the volume of E3 ROW so heavy that around 50k + additional visas are not helping to bring E3 ROW to current. Read some where about amnesty causing this back log. Any one knows this for sure?
And this exaggerated estimation of 108,000 includes those with PD between 6/2/06 and 7/31/07. Since the cut off date for EB2-I was Apr 2004 in the June 07 bulletin, most with PD must have already applied before July 1st.
Forget the speculations, it looks like there are a few facts which are out in the open. Correct me if I'm wrong:
1. Minimum of 15,000-20,000 EB visas are available.
2. They have closed EB-3 quota.
3. At least 20,000 if not more FB spill over is available and has not been applied to this year's count.
Having said that, before horizontal spill over, all these numbers (spill overs) were going to E3 ROW. Why is E3 ROW still severely retrogressed? Apart from calculations, I am attempting to do all reality checks. Is the volume of E3 ROW so heavy that around 50k + additional visas are not helping to bring E3 ROW to current. Read some where about amnesty causing this back log. Any one knows this for sure?
And this exaggerated estimation of 108,000 includes those with PD between 6/2/06 and 7/31/07. Since the cut off date for EB2-I was Apr 2004 in the June 07 bulletin, most with PD must have already applied before July 1st.
Forget the speculations, it looks like there are a few facts which are out in the open. Correct me if I'm wrong:
1. Minimum of 15,000-20,000 EB visas are available.
2. They have closed EB-3 quota.
3. At least 20,000 if not more FB spill over is available and has not been applied to this year's count.
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snthampi
07-31 04:16 PM
Some morons also gave me red. U do not have guts to express yourself out and just want to give red dots . It is quite cynical. typical of their nature. They do not want to have fun. They do not want others to have fun.
I agree. For many people having fun is about making money. We can't change them. So, we need to just ignore and move on.
I agree. For many people having fun is about making money. We can't change them. So, we need to just ignore and move on.
unitednations
02-18 10:36 PM
In fact I guess most of the April 2001 245(i) cases are also getting through the Eb3 category...I thought that they would get into the EB3 Other workers category with the 10000 K cap........ I guess many of the cases you are referring to must be the 245(i) cases...
As I remember, even when I came to US the first time in 2000, I was interviewed quite rigorously...They made me submit degree certificate and experience certificates and all...
Cooks and driving instructors getting in on H1B??? That is news to me...
Yeah, they are all 245i. If they aren't in USA; they can't get here on h-1b; job needs a degree. My point was that when people try to contrast family base with eb and which one is better; people would be surprised to know that people in family base generally would fall into definition of skilled worker and share same quota as eb3 professional but would have to wait outside usa since they wouldn't qualify for any temporary non immigrant visas.
As I remember, even when I came to US the first time in 2000, I was interviewed quite rigorously...They made me submit degree certificate and experience certificates and all...
Cooks and driving instructors getting in on H1B??? That is news to me...
Yeah, they are all 245i. If they aren't in USA; they can't get here on h-1b; job needs a degree. My point was that when people try to contrast family base with eb and which one is better; people would be surprised to know that people in family base generally would fall into definition of skilled worker and share same quota as eb3 professional but would have to wait outside usa since they wouldn't qualify for any temporary non immigrant visas.
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snathan
05-01 11:05 PM
And who told you that they are being opressed - have you been to Sri Lanka and if yes which places did you visit to see the Tamils being opressed .
The terrorists who come to fight in J&K from Pak say they are fighting because Indian Army and govt is opressing the Muslims . Is that true also ?
Seriously I don't care - my personal opinion that in this particular case it is none of our ( India's ) business to meddle in Sri Lankan affairs when they are on the verge of getting rid of a menace they have . Terrorism is not a solution of anything . Only peaceful times can bring happiness and prosperity.
If you are so ignorant no one can help you. In SL everything started because of singala opression and chavinisim. But its not the case with J&K. The Pak govt wants J&K and thats how started here. One does not need to go the battle field to understand whats going on there.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Desperate to escape the warzone in Sri Lanka, a group of 21 people set out from Mulaitivu on April 21. Among them was eight-month-old Kuberan who was feeding on his mother's milk when she died. His family was on a boat with 20 others.
Each one was hoping for safety and the chance of a better life in Rameshwaram, nine hours away. But they got lost and soon they ran out of food and water. One by one 10 people died of hunger and dehydration and their bodies were thrown into the sea.
Lost at sea they finally landed on the Kakinada cost of Andhra Pradesh, but only 11 reached alive.
Kuberan in Hindu mythology means the 'Lord of Wealth'. But this eight-month-old is anything but that. He is the face of the tragic conflict in north Sri Lanka, symbolic of a future and a paradise lost.
"When we were in Sri Lanka, my father died, then my younger sister died, and then my wife. We were trying to escape to save our lives," said S Jagadeeswaran, one of the refugees.
In the last three months, at least 50 boats with Tamil civilians have left Mullaiteevu for Rameshwaram. But no one knows how many of them survived.
"My daughter was in my arms, my lap and she died right there," said Niranjana, a refugee.
Thus, the Sri Lankan civilians who tried to escape the violence, were washed up on India's shores.
The terrorists who come to fight in J&K from Pak say they are fighting because Indian Army and govt is opressing the Muslims . Is that true also ?
Seriously I don't care - my personal opinion that in this particular case it is none of our ( India's ) business to meddle in Sri Lankan affairs when they are on the verge of getting rid of a menace they have . Terrorism is not a solution of anything . Only peaceful times can bring happiness and prosperity.
If you are so ignorant no one can help you. In SL everything started because of singala opression and chavinisim. But its not the case with J&K. The Pak govt wants J&K and thats how started here. One does not need to go the battle field to understand whats going on there.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Desperate to escape the warzone in Sri Lanka, a group of 21 people set out from Mulaitivu on April 21. Among them was eight-month-old Kuberan who was feeding on his mother's milk when she died. His family was on a boat with 20 others.
Each one was hoping for safety and the chance of a better life in Rameshwaram, nine hours away. But they got lost and soon they ran out of food and water. One by one 10 people died of hunger and dehydration and their bodies were thrown into the sea.
Lost at sea they finally landed on the Kakinada cost of Andhra Pradesh, but only 11 reached alive.
Kuberan in Hindu mythology means the 'Lord of Wealth'. But this eight-month-old is anything but that. He is the face of the tragic conflict in north Sri Lanka, symbolic of a future and a paradise lost.
"When we were in Sri Lanka, my father died, then my younger sister died, and then my wife. We were trying to escape to save our lives," said S Jagadeeswaran, one of the refugees.
In the last three months, at least 50 boats with Tamil civilians have left Mullaiteevu for Rameshwaram. But no one knows how many of them survived.
"My daughter was in my arms, my lap and she died right there," said Niranjana, a refugee.
Thus, the Sri Lankan civilians who tried to escape the violence, were washed up on India's shores.
more...
sunny1000
02-15 02:37 AM
I asked this question on another thread...
Can an Executive order of the President of the U.S help recapture the unused visa numbers until the congress acts?
Gurus, weigh in.
Can an Executive order of the President of the U.S help recapture the unused visa numbers until the congress acts?
Gurus, weigh in.
ujjvalkoul
06-26 01:54 PM
I wish this thread would be closed...the word runour onthe main page looks scary...!!!!
more...
PlainSpeak
01-13 01:27 PM
I wish- Logiclife would answer this thread. He has a way to explain things and put things in perspective. He is very direct and I like that.
Yes i have sen LogicLife's responses before and let me tell you i am impressed. Perhaps an reply from him will provide answers. Not to say that you yourself have not been eloquont. As i said before yours was the only sane answer i event got, but i reply to all because to respect a person is to respect what he believes in and i do that by replying back
Yes i have sen LogicLife's responses before and let me tell you i am impressed. Perhaps an reply from him will provide answers. Not to say that you yourself have not been eloquont. As i said before yours was the only sane answer i event got, but i reply to all because to respect a person is to respect what he believes in and i do that by replying back
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EkAurAaya
07-17 09:58 AM
Note to Moderators: I posted the same question as a separate thread, but then I thought this would be a good place to pose the question too...
Heres the background...
Primary:
EB3 Feb 2003 PD
i140 Approved
i485 files June 2007
for both wife and me...
EAD/AP - approved Sept 2007
EAD extension received June 2008 (1 year)
AP extension pending
(we have not used EAD/AP yet - we both are on H1b)
Derivative:
EB2 April 2004 PD
i140 Approved
Pending - i824 in Sept 2007 to convert AOS to CP (hoping it will get through by Oct this year)
Question:
Assuming we will get CP interview before AOS gets adjudicated, do you forsee any potential issues in this scenario?
Thanks in advance!
Heres the background...
Primary:
EB3 Feb 2003 PD
i140 Approved
i485 files June 2007
for both wife and me...
EAD/AP - approved Sept 2007
EAD extension received June 2008 (1 year)
AP extension pending
(we have not used EAD/AP yet - we both are on H1b)
Derivative:
EB2 April 2004 PD
i140 Approved
Pending - i824 in Sept 2007 to convert AOS to CP (hoping it will get through by Oct this year)
Question:
Assuming we will get CP interview before AOS gets adjudicated, do you forsee any potential issues in this scenario?
Thanks in advance!
more...
Kushal
07-27 01:59 PM
Really... Millions... Have you checked the disclaimer in your lit pack under the 6-4-3 plan. A typical IBO makes $115 a month... Amway / BWW was forced to put this statement because of a lawsuit brought by Amway Diamonds and Double Diamonds... You can google...
I know you will now state that "you don't want to be an average... an average corporate employee makes $30K.. etc.. etc.." (Straight from Brad Duncan's CD) I have used it myself hundreds of times on the prospects...
By the way did you call IRS to check.. or you are just believing what Kanti / Kumar / Raj or any other Diamond told you.. Oh another thing that they regularly mention in their trainings "IRS and USCIS don't share data so IRS won't know if you are on H1 or not"... USCIS can ask for your Tax returns before granting Green Card...
May be you have not received 1099 from Amway yet but the 1099 income on 1040 goes under a separate head "Self Employment"...
I know you will respond with some nasty stuff but I urge you to take the emotional hat off and think rationally (which I know is very hard as I had faced the same things) about the direction that Amway is taking... especially in Indian community... Do you see many Indian faces these days in the Amway's Inspire magazine or new Rubys, Emeralds, or Diamonds...
This is a good way to make some residual income (I still get monthly check 4 years after stopping to build it) but millions??? Not many EDCs and Diamonds make that money if you exclude the money from CDs, Books, CommuniKate etc..
Good luck!
I get good monthly checks every month (more then $115), and they don't seem to bounce either. And good thing it increases. Don't need to google anything while I can get from credible sources.
I know you will now state that "you don't want to be an average... an average corporate employee makes $30K.. etc.. etc.." (Straight from Brad Duncan's CD) I have used it myself hundreds of times on the prospects...
By the way did you call IRS to check.. or you are just believing what Kanti / Kumar / Raj or any other Diamond told you.. Oh another thing that they regularly mention in their trainings "IRS and USCIS don't share data so IRS won't know if you are on H1 or not"... USCIS can ask for your Tax returns before granting Green Card...
May be you have not received 1099 from Amway yet but the 1099 income on 1040 goes under a separate head "Self Employment"...
I know you will respond with some nasty stuff but I urge you to take the emotional hat off and think rationally (which I know is very hard as I had faced the same things) about the direction that Amway is taking... especially in Indian community... Do you see many Indian faces these days in the Amway's Inspire magazine or new Rubys, Emeralds, or Diamonds...
This is a good way to make some residual income (I still get monthly check 4 years after stopping to build it) but millions??? Not many EDCs and Diamonds make that money if you exclude the money from CDs, Books, CommuniKate etc..
Good luck!
I get good monthly checks every month (more then $115), and they don't seem to bounce either. And good thing it increases. Don't need to google anything while I can get from credible sources.
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deepakjain
05-28 11:17 PM
EB2 and EB3 will be in queue for sometime, fact being the latest fraud by Indian IT firms.
Please read then post comments.
I personally know 7 people who came to US in 2008 via Indian IT firm - designations [Sr Project managers or Program manager]....
Applied for GC under EB1 and every one of them have a GC now....not to mention few MNC's based out in India have done the same...one of my friends who works for an US based consulting firm in Hyd is here in US on H1B [12 months] he has a GC.....EB1
Please read then post comments.
I personally know 7 people who came to US in 2008 via Indian IT firm - designations [Sr Project managers or Program manager]....
Applied for GC under EB1 and every one of them have a GC now....not to mention few MNC's based out in India have done the same...one of my friends who works for an US based consulting firm in Hyd is here in US on H1B [12 months] he has a GC.....EB1
more...
Ramba
07-17 11:42 AM
The was no change in law and still there was a change in interpretation based on the current state of EB2, so this interpretation will change once some other category needs spill overs. The is no law which states spill over should be horizonal or vertical or diagonal :) It merely says that DOS can decide how the spill overs should flow.
DOS (or any government agency for that matter) cannot interpert the law differently for each year. One law and one interpretation. It can't follow the different set of rules when implementing the law each year. Initally, INA was designed to follow vertical spill over (diversity was important than preference catagory). But, AC21 law ameneded the INA to force the DOS to implement horizontal spill over (preference catagory is important than diversity). However, DOS was still follwing verical spill over evenafter the AC21 act till 2006. If DOS followd the law correctly, EB2-I and Ch would have never been retrogressed since 2005. Lucky for DOS, no one has challanged the DOS. Now they realized the mistake and follow the law correctly. They follw this till if congress changes the law.
DOS (or any government agency for that matter) cannot interpert the law differently for each year. One law and one interpretation. It can't follow the different set of rules when implementing the law each year. Initally, INA was designed to follow vertical spill over (diversity was important than preference catagory). But, AC21 law ameneded the INA to force the DOS to implement horizontal spill over (preference catagory is important than diversity). However, DOS was still follwing verical spill over evenafter the AC21 act till 2006. If DOS followd the law correctly, EB2-I and Ch would have never been retrogressed since 2005. Lucky for DOS, no one has challanged the DOS. Now they realized the mistake and follow the law correctly. They follw this till if congress changes the law.
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vdlrao
07-21 05:33 PM
Spillover is usually USCIS inefficiency to allocate them. The law says USCIS can leave some visa unassigned but cannot over assign even a single visa for a year.
This UNUSED VISAS OF FAMILY BASED are not due to the inefficiency of USCIS but because of the 7% limit for each country and 2% for dependent areas of family based visas.
This UNUSED VISAS OF FAMILY BASED are not due to the inefficiency of USCIS but because of the 7% limit for each country and 2% for dependent areas of family based visas.
more...
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venetian
05-11 06:33 PM
Illusions,
If BBC, AFP, AP & Reuters are considered a reliable source of information, then what is happening in Sri Lanka is genocide.
venetian, you could say that the Tamils in SL were just as a much discriminated in SL as the Muslims in India.
There is no such Genocide happening in SL as some claim. As a matter of fact the LTTE ethnically cleansed the Muslims from the NE of the country in the 90's, yet the Muslims in SL didn't bare arms against the LTTE.
Mind you the civil war in SL is against the LTTE, not the Tamils.
If BBC, AFP, AP & Reuters are considered a reliable source of information, then what is happening in Sri Lanka is genocide.
venetian, you could say that the Tamils in SL were just as a much discriminated in SL as the Muslims in India.
There is no such Genocide happening in SL as some claim. As a matter of fact the LTTE ethnically cleansed the Muslims from the NE of the country in the 90's, yet the Muslims in SL didn't bare arms against the LTTE.
Mind you the civil war in SL is against the LTTE, not the Tamils.
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soljabhai
12-13 04:15 PM
we, as non citizens, obviously do not have all the rights that the citizens possess. We don't know whether this rule is or is not constitutional (And as someone rightly pointed out that the expertise of a constitutional attorney is required).
However if it can be shown that certain citizens/corporations ( for example microsoft, google etc who also make efforts and lobby congress to change the law ) are unduly disadvantaged by this per country cap, then they can be plaintiff. So in a sense, we have allies in the corporate sector with tons of money (and who want to make more!) So they might be willing to support us,
if it is indeed found that the rule can be challenged.
However if it can be shown that certain citizens/corporations ( for example microsoft, google etc who also make efforts and lobby congress to change the law ) are unduly disadvantaged by this per country cap, then they can be plaintiff. So in a sense, we have allies in the corporate sector with tons of money (and who want to make more!) So they might be willing to support us,
if it is indeed found that the rule can be challenged.
more...
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joshraj
07-26 01:27 PM
Question for Lawyer or Senior Members of Forum:
Dear Sir/Madam,
I myself is currently in H1B and my wife on H4. We both have EAD and AP which we�re never activated since we had our H1 and H4 and my wife has not started working.
She should be starting work very soon and hence we would like to renew her EAD and AP. Also as part of her new job she needs to travel oustide US. So the question I had is whether she can travel outside US on her currenty valid AP with the application for renewal of AP/EAD in processing with USCIS.
Thank You All for Your Help!
Regards,
Josh
Dear Sir/Madam,
I myself is currently in H1B and my wife on H4. We both have EAD and AP which we�re never activated since we had our H1 and H4 and my wife has not started working.
She should be starting work very soon and hence we would like to renew her EAD and AP. Also as part of her new job she needs to travel oustide US. So the question I had is whether she can travel outside US on her currenty valid AP with the application for renewal of AP/EAD in processing with USCIS.
Thank You All for Your Help!
Regards,
Josh
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Aah_GC
07-13 05:00 PM
Okuzmin,
All I meant was - TN is again just a visa after all and is just another version of the H1B hell. You ought to do better than just working for some one to pursue your American Dream right? What use it is to keep looking for an employer, extending your visas - is that not just a glorified version of H1B? True freedom is when you could quit an ass of any employer and come back home with your head held high :)
TN is not a modified H1B. With TN you do not have a dual intent: you cannot apply for a green card straight through TN status -- you would have to adjust your status to H1, L1, or any other immigrant status and only then apply for a green card.
TN is given for two years. You must be a Canadian citizen (not just a PR!) to qualify for TN status. Mexican citizens must obtain the actual TN visa, while Canadians don't. There are occupations that do not qualify for TN status.
Your wife can just as easily file for a TN in her occupation. Yes, you need an employer in the USA to get TN status, but I don't see a big problem with it. I work for a relatively small IT company (about 90 employees), and we hire people from anywhere in the USA and Canada. Our recruitment personnel conducts online and phone interviews, and a job offer can be made before the candidate ever visits our state. I'm sure many companies follow the same practice.
With TN you get stamped at the border (Canadian, not Mexican :)) -- and welcome (back) to the USA! If you follow the guidelines, it's very simple to get this status. I'm not sure which country gets your taxes, though. Since I'm quite a few years away from my Canadian citizenship, the information I currently have was sufficient to satisfy my curiosity about TN status. ;)
Another interesting idea about Canada-USA work/immigration popped up today in conversation with my immigration lawyer. If you have a managerial position in a company that has offices in USA and Canada, you can jump on L1 visa. This will let you file in EB-1 category if you want to go for a green card. There are some additional requirements: you need to work as a manager in the company's branch in Canada for at least a year; when you apply for a green card, the company will need to prove that the Canadian office will keep operating after you get your green card and leave Canada. Nevertheless, it's a possibility that is definitely better than EB-3 or EB-2.
All I meant was - TN is again just a visa after all and is just another version of the H1B hell. You ought to do better than just working for some one to pursue your American Dream right? What use it is to keep looking for an employer, extending your visas - is that not just a glorified version of H1B? True freedom is when you could quit an ass of any employer and come back home with your head held high :)
TN is not a modified H1B. With TN you do not have a dual intent: you cannot apply for a green card straight through TN status -- you would have to adjust your status to H1, L1, or any other immigrant status and only then apply for a green card.
TN is given for two years. You must be a Canadian citizen (not just a PR!) to qualify for TN status. Mexican citizens must obtain the actual TN visa, while Canadians don't. There are occupations that do not qualify for TN status.
Your wife can just as easily file for a TN in her occupation. Yes, you need an employer in the USA to get TN status, but I don't see a big problem with it. I work for a relatively small IT company (about 90 employees), and we hire people from anywhere in the USA and Canada. Our recruitment personnel conducts online and phone interviews, and a job offer can be made before the candidate ever visits our state. I'm sure many companies follow the same practice.
With TN you get stamped at the border (Canadian, not Mexican :)) -- and welcome (back) to the USA! If you follow the guidelines, it's very simple to get this status. I'm not sure which country gets your taxes, though. Since I'm quite a few years away from my Canadian citizenship, the information I currently have was sufficient to satisfy my curiosity about TN status. ;)
Another interesting idea about Canada-USA work/immigration popped up today in conversation with my immigration lawyer. If you have a managerial position in a company that has offices in USA and Canada, you can jump on L1 visa. This will let you file in EB-1 category if you want to go for a green card. There are some additional requirements: you need to work as a manager in the company's branch in Canada for at least a year; when you apply for a green card, the company will need to prove that the Canadian office will keep operating after you get your green card and leave Canada. Nevertheless, it's a possibility that is definitely better than EB-3 or EB-2.
more...
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hiralal
05-29 12:03 AM
if your gc in pending ..don't get tempted to buy a house. here is a good report.
------------
MONDAY, MAY 25, 2009
OTHER VOICES
The Housing Hurricane Will Howl Again
WE'RE OUT OF THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE, but here comes the back half of the storm. A lot of people think that we've seen the worst of the housing crisis. They're talking about green shoots and glimmers of hope, when they should be back in the storm shelter, preparing for a flood of inventory that will overwhelm the markets and produce another round of falling prices
For the past few months there has been a semi-moratorium on foreclosures. Most institutions with delinquent mortgages didn't foreclose. The signs that blanket many neighborhoods have been posted by a fraction of the lenders. Now the rest of the banks are rushing to get their properties on the market.
[ov]
Christoph Hitz for Barron's
We're still supporting misguided programs that only add to inventory woes. They encourage builders to put up more homes and penalize anyone else trying to sell a home.
As a Florida real-estate broker who works with bank asset managers to dispose of foreclosed properties, I get a good view of this market. From December 2008 through mid-March 2009, the number of asset managers calling to discuss REO (real estate owned) properties on their client banks' books dropped by more than 80% from the level at which it previously had been running. In the past two months, however, asset managers have been busy, with most interested in how many properties we could handle at once.
Law firms for banks are once again lining up to file foreclosures and to process evictions. The asset managers we work with have warned us to expect a flood of properties, beginning in early June. This will hit as the number of potential buyers continues to dwindle. Builders, traditional sellers and investors who entered too early are already loaded with REO properties.
ALL OF THE OBAMA administration's attempts to revive, resuscitate and shock the housing markets into recovery have failed. Potential buyers can't purchase homes when they are losing their jobs, regardless of how attractive the credits and mortgages are. The price of homes will continue to fall until the properties are affordable for potential buyers.
If an investor could purchase a home and rent it out for close to breakeven, we might be getting close to a bottom. But we are nowhere close to that level in most critical markets. Until it is approached, prices will continue to fall. In fact, the negative cash flow now evident, along with the flood of properties coming into the inventory pool, warn of lower prices.
There's no light at the end of the tunnel yet. We're still supporting builders through misguided programs that are only adding to the inventory woes. California decided to offer a $10,000 credit to buyers of new homes, on top of the $8,000 federal credit. But California made the $10,000 available only for new homes purchased directly from builders. That shows the power of the builders' lobby, but it only adds to California's housing-industry problem. It encourages builders to construct dwellings we don't need, and it penalizes anyone else trying to sell a home.
Housing inventory soon will flood a market in which more than 500,000 homes are being built each year, even though the annual sales pace for new homes is closer to 300,000. We must also deal with a system clogged with impossible short sales, a surge of second and vacation homes being dumped, and third-wave flippers realizing that they entered the market too soon.
FOR THE BANKS, the back half of the hurricane will destroy balance sheets, unless the Obama administration comes up with another plan to mythically mark these assets on the books. Or we might see some chimerical plan to write down mortgage payments, or move toxic mortgages into a dark pool, or create some new illusion that glosses over the problem.
Our experience with banks' selling REOs is they realize about 50%-75% of what they initially think they will get. Moreover, their expenses to bring these properties to market and manage them are growing. Court systems bogged down with foreclosures are raising fees so that they can hire additional staff. More and more homeowners being evicted are stripping homes to the bone, removing appliances, fixtures, carpet, cabinets, air handlers, motorized garage-door openers and anything else that they can carry off or sell.
Unemployment presents a two-pronged problem. If homeowners lose their jobs, they have difficulty meeting mortgage payments. And a high jobless rate forces more people to put their homes on the market.
During the housing bubble, many second homes were purchased with the mythical equity from primary residences. These second homes are coming onto the market at an alarming rate, as many middle- and upper-class sellers need to raise cash. In some very exclusive private communities in Florida, where home prices are in the seven figures, more than 50% of the homes are on the market. (For more on the vacation-home market, see Cover Story.)
Unfortunately, there are no signs of recovery, despite the hype and the twisting of numbers in many media reports. The end of the unofficial moratorium on foreclosures, combined with rising unemployment, signals that the back half of this housing hurricane is only just beginning.
------------
MONDAY, MAY 25, 2009
OTHER VOICES
The Housing Hurricane Will Howl Again
WE'RE OUT OF THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE, but here comes the back half of the storm. A lot of people think that we've seen the worst of the housing crisis. They're talking about green shoots and glimmers of hope, when they should be back in the storm shelter, preparing for a flood of inventory that will overwhelm the markets and produce another round of falling prices
For the past few months there has been a semi-moratorium on foreclosures. Most institutions with delinquent mortgages didn't foreclose. The signs that blanket many neighborhoods have been posted by a fraction of the lenders. Now the rest of the banks are rushing to get their properties on the market.
[ov]
Christoph Hitz for Barron's
We're still supporting misguided programs that only add to inventory woes. They encourage builders to put up more homes and penalize anyone else trying to sell a home.
As a Florida real-estate broker who works with bank asset managers to dispose of foreclosed properties, I get a good view of this market. From December 2008 through mid-March 2009, the number of asset managers calling to discuss REO (real estate owned) properties on their client banks' books dropped by more than 80% from the level at which it previously had been running. In the past two months, however, asset managers have been busy, with most interested in how many properties we could handle at once.
Law firms for banks are once again lining up to file foreclosures and to process evictions. The asset managers we work with have warned us to expect a flood of properties, beginning in early June. This will hit as the number of potential buyers continues to dwindle. Builders, traditional sellers and investors who entered too early are already loaded with REO properties.
ALL OF THE OBAMA administration's attempts to revive, resuscitate and shock the housing markets into recovery have failed. Potential buyers can't purchase homes when they are losing their jobs, regardless of how attractive the credits and mortgages are. The price of homes will continue to fall until the properties are affordable for potential buyers.
If an investor could purchase a home and rent it out for close to breakeven, we might be getting close to a bottom. But we are nowhere close to that level in most critical markets. Until it is approached, prices will continue to fall. In fact, the negative cash flow now evident, along with the flood of properties coming into the inventory pool, warn of lower prices.
There's no light at the end of the tunnel yet. We're still supporting builders through misguided programs that are only adding to the inventory woes. California decided to offer a $10,000 credit to buyers of new homes, on top of the $8,000 federal credit. But California made the $10,000 available only for new homes purchased directly from builders. That shows the power of the builders' lobby, but it only adds to California's housing-industry problem. It encourages builders to construct dwellings we don't need, and it penalizes anyone else trying to sell a home.
Housing inventory soon will flood a market in which more than 500,000 homes are being built each year, even though the annual sales pace for new homes is closer to 300,000. We must also deal with a system clogged with impossible short sales, a surge of second and vacation homes being dumped, and third-wave flippers realizing that they entered the market too soon.
FOR THE BANKS, the back half of the hurricane will destroy balance sheets, unless the Obama administration comes up with another plan to mythically mark these assets on the books. Or we might see some chimerical plan to write down mortgage payments, or move toxic mortgages into a dark pool, or create some new illusion that glosses over the problem.
Our experience with banks' selling REOs is they realize about 50%-75% of what they initially think they will get. Moreover, their expenses to bring these properties to market and manage them are growing. Court systems bogged down with foreclosures are raising fees so that they can hire additional staff. More and more homeowners being evicted are stripping homes to the bone, removing appliances, fixtures, carpet, cabinets, air handlers, motorized garage-door openers and anything else that they can carry off or sell.
Unemployment presents a two-pronged problem. If homeowners lose their jobs, they have difficulty meeting mortgage payments. And a high jobless rate forces more people to put their homes on the market.
During the housing bubble, many second homes were purchased with the mythical equity from primary residences. These second homes are coming onto the market at an alarming rate, as many middle- and upper-class sellers need to raise cash. In some very exclusive private communities in Florida, where home prices are in the seven figures, more than 50% of the homes are on the market. (For more on the vacation-home market, see Cover Story.)
Unfortunately, there are no signs of recovery, despite the hype and the twisting of numbers in many media reports. The end of the unofficial moratorium on foreclosures, combined with rising unemployment, signals that the back half of this housing hurricane is only just beginning.
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swamy
12-13 10:35 PM
in a nutshell:
an end to retrogression for all
increased GC quota
it does remain though, one of our goals in the package because we believe it is fundamentally unfair and should not be apart of a skilled immigration program.
why is this so hard for ppl to understand!
an end to retrogression for all
increased GC quota
it does remain though, one of our goals in the package because we believe it is fundamentally unfair and should not be apart of a skilled immigration program.
why is this so hard for ppl to understand!
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Lasantha
02-12 02:08 PM
Yeah, Tell me about it!!!
Just two more months and mine would have been current!!!!
correction: EB3 ROW = 01JAN05 !!!!!!!!!!!!!
OMG!!!
Just 1.25 more year and I would have been current! Damn!!!!
Just two more months and mine would have been current!!!!
correction: EB3 ROW = 01JAN05 !!!!!!!!!!!!!
OMG!!!
Just 1.25 more year and I would have been current! Damn!!!!
chanduv23
06-26 12:36 PM
What I noticed is these kind of roumor comes from those who already filed and got their receipts :D :D
Isn't it??? ;)
Mid month retrogression is possible acc to Murthy but that may not happen in July
Everything is a speculation here. USCIS is the winner - always keeps us guessing.
Some optimistic coments I heard is - USCIS is now prepared to clear backlogs and will accept a lot of applications this month as they do not want this year's visa quota wasted.
Isn't it??? ;)
Mid month retrogression is possible acc to Murthy but that may not happen in July
Everything is a speculation here. USCIS is the winner - always keeps us guessing.
Some optimistic coments I heard is - USCIS is now prepared to clear backlogs and will accept a lot of applications this month as they do not want this year's visa quota wasted.
days_go_by
01-23 06:11 PM
not all cases approved by DOL are fraud, some cases are really genuine, I have waited over 5 years for labor, and I know a bunch of other people too who have genuinely waited.
But I agree most of frauds, I know of friends who bought and got Green Cards within a few months. checkout this thread .
http://immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?p=1596562#post1596562
it's not like DOL is not aware of it, they know it, they have created an industry around it. I don't think they will ban labor subst, they would rather add a transfer fee and make more money on it.
But I agree most of frauds, I know of friends who bought and got Green Cards within a few months. checkout this thread .
http://immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?p=1596562#post1596562
it's not like DOL is not aware of it, they know it, they have created an industry around it. I don't think they will ban labor subst, they would rather add a transfer fee and make more money on it.
